Saturday, July 15, 2006

Current Affairs: Realligment of Middle East - Is this the start.....

This is my analysis... and hopefully not correct

Let us look at a sitution
- Fuel prices at a all time high. Profits being made by all middle east countries.
- Israel opens up a new front by attacking Lebabon and Syria.
- Iran comes to its rescue by supporting it. Uses the land route.
- Iran invades Iraq.
  • Iran encounters the US forces which are already streched in the north.
  • But the local government and the newly raised army all rally around Iran and cause cival war hence making it easier for Iran
- Iran shows up as the true Muslim country and able to stand up to the WEST.

IRAN
Upside
  • Iran shows up as the true librators of Iraq from non-believer
  • Iran has nothing to loose as they are already going to be referred to US
  • US is already planning to attack Iran and offence is best form of defence
  • Iran will own and control the vast majoirty of OIL. No UN or US embargo can stop other countries from dealing with Iran.
  • Other Middle east countries may hate Iran but they hate US and Isreal more.
Downside
  • UN sanctions - they were coming anyhow
  • US attacking Iran - they were planning anyhow
  • US caputing Iran and having a pupet government - Cannot control Afganistan and Iraq. Doubt if they can strech thinner.
USA
  • Already streched thin in Afganistan and Iraq
  • Has shown no control over the naughty irrisponsible Child (Isreal)
  • European counterparts has a big rift about Iran, Iraq, Israel etc. Not sure if they will come or are capable rescue US.
  • Both China and Russia would love to see a weakened USA. Sit on the sidelines
  • UN is too weak to do anything other than pass resolutions
  • North Korea may open up another front with Japan and South Korea.
Result
World War 3 or major reallignment of world politics "triggered by the kidnapping of a French-Israel soldier Gilad Shalit by Hamas"


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